The John Batchelor Show

Tuesday April 18, 2017

Air Date: 
April 18, 2017

Photo, left:  Leonid Meteor.  
 
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW  
Co-host: Larry Kudlow, CNBC senior advisor; & Cumulus Media radio  
 
Hour One 
Tuesday  18 April 2017 / Hour 1, Block A:  Brett Arends, MarketWatch, in re: If Trump and team can take growth from 1.8% to 3%, that’d be spectacular.  Article in FT by Steven Mnuchin:   “Growth.  We don't need a BAT tax; higher growth outlook wd generate enormous revenues.”  ($4 trillion in addtl revenues from a pick-up in growth).   Mnuchin saying to Gary Cohn: Stay off my turf.  From 1900 to 2000, economy grew at 3.5% PA. We’ve been in a period of bad policies. BA: can encourage investment and bring back offshore fund.  But a strong argument that the economic conditions that generated spectacular growth during most to the Twentieth Century – e.g., everyone bought a car after WWI, and highway system generated that; we don't know where the next such [a huge economic growth generator will come from now].   LK: Our corporate rates are a multiple of other countries’s; we need to lower them to bring back growth.  (1 of 2)
Can ‘animal spirits’ survive the ‘Trump slump’?  Can ‘animal spirits’ survive the ‘Trump slump’? Time to deliver, Mr. President.  The U.S. stock market’s fate still rests on the success or failure of the Trump agenda, writes Howard Gold.
Of course Donald Trump’s tax cuts are in trouble  Of course Donald Trump’s tax cuts are in trouble Older Americans don’t want benefits slashed — and they vote. Older Americans don’t want benefits slashed — and they vote — putting Congress on notice, writes Brett Arends.
Tuesday  18 April 2017 / Hour 1, Block B:   Brett Arends, MarketWatch, in re: This market is the best any president has had since 1920’s.  LK: I wrote, If Trump wins, buy the dip; if Hillary wins, sell the rally. Btw, the yield curve is flattening – sign of a slow-down.  BA:  With polite intentions: the president is an unknown quantity.  (2 of 2)
Tuesday  18 April 2017 / Hour 1, Block C:  Steve Moore, Heritage Foundation, CNN, Freedom Works, in re: Gov Malloy [has created a dog’s breakfast of] the Connecticut economy – GE and multiple other companies have fled. Unions have in effect destroyed it. It was in great shape and now is in tatters.  States with no income tax have three times the growth in jobs as do other states.  Cf: Arthur Laffer, Larry and me.   Gov Lowell Weicker pushed through a state constitutional amendment to have a balanced budget – and that’s never been enforced! True, taxes are a factor but right-to-work laws are critical: you’re welcome to join a union, but are not obliged to join if you choose not to. Ten years in a row, the best has been Utah. The most progress in the last ten years: Indiana, which had two great governors, Mitch Daniels and Mike Pence.  Florida is No. 6 in the list; it has beautiful weather but unattractive gubernatorial policies; even California lost people to North Dakota from its [harebrained] policies!  Lots of liberal Californians have moved to Colorado, then vote o the kind of officials they left behind,  New York is the 50th, New Jersey is 48th .  Disaster.  These are mostly public-sector unions.  They vote vast benefits for themselves and bankrupt the state. When the US economy is not growing, states have to pay those bills. 
..
State Specific Storylines:
Alaska
2017 Rich States, Poor States Economic Outlook Rank: 30

  • Alaska’s economic outlook dropped 5 spots from 25 in 2016 to 30 in 2017
  • Alaska’s recently legislated tax changes, high business taxes and increase in debt service have all negatively impacted the state’s economic competitiveness

Arizona
2017 Rich States, Poor States Economic Outlook Rank: 8

  • Arizona passed tax cuts during the 2016 legislative session and earned a mention in the ALEC Center for State Fiscal Reform study, 2016 State Tax Cut Roundup

Arkansas
2017 Rich States, Poor States Economic Outlook Rank: 23
 

  • Outlook declined by three spots due to minimum wage increase and sales tax burden increase

California
2017 Rich States, Poor States Economic Outlook Rank: 47

  • California has the highest state marginal personal income tax in the nation 
  • 1,103,301 taxpayers have left the Golden State over the past decade 
  • Dropped another spot in 2017 to 47th (tied for all time worst ranking)

Colorado
2017 Rich States, Poor States Economic Outlook Rank: 15

  • Colorado’s Taxpayer Bill of Rights (TABOR) has kept taxes in check for Colorado citizens
  • However, CO’s overall economic outlook has fallen all the way from 2nd in 2010

Connecticut
2017 Rich States, Poor States Economic Outlook Rank: 46

  • Connecticut’s recently legislated tax changes are one of the worst in the nation
  • General Electric left high tax Connecticut for Massachusetts (The Bay State has lower taxes on corporate and personal income, as well as a significantly better economic outlook)
  • Some of the worst pension liabilities in the nation 

Delaware
2017  Rich States, Poor States Economic Outlook Rank: 37th

  • Net tax cut produced an improvement from 44th in 2016
  • However, Delaware has some of the highest personal income taxes and corporate tax income rates in the nation
  • High state debt
  • Not right to work 

Florida
2017 Rich States, Poor States Economic Outlook Rank: 6

  • Florida passed tax reform during the 2016 legislative session and earned a mention in the ALEC Center for State Fiscal Reform study, State Tax Cut Roundup for the 4th consecutive year
  • FL saw improvement in ranks for property tax burden, remaining tax burden, as well as lower worker compensation costs.
  • Florida is only one of nine states in the nation without a personal income tax. 
  • Improvement from 8th in 2016
  • Net migration growth of nearly 800,000 over past decade
  • Likely gaining two new congressional seats in 2020

Georgia
2017 Rich States, Poor States Economic Outlook Rank: 18

  • Georgia is near all-time worst ranking in 10 years of RSPS 
  • Gasoline and hotel tax increases

Hawaii
2017 Rich States, Poor States Economic Outlook Rank: 43

  • Dropped again from #42 in 2016
  • Lost population to other states each of the past 10 years
  • Some of the highest personal income tax rates
  • Highest sales tax burden in America

Idaho
2017 Rich States, Poor States Economic Outlook Rank: 10

  • Improved from 15th to 10th in the past year
  • Low state debt
  • No death tax 
  • Right to work

Illinois
2017 Rich States, Poor States Economic Outlook Rank: 44

  • Illinois is currently facing a state budget crisis, and the state’s high level of unfunded pension liabilities are all contributing factors to the state’s dismal economic outlook
  • One of the worst funded pension systems
  • Outmigration of nearly 700,000 over the past decade
  • Projected to lose two more Congressional seats in 2020

Indiana
2017 Rich States, Poor States Economic Outlook Rank: 2

  • Indiana’s best economic outlook ranking in the 10 years of Rich States, Poor States
  • Indiana ranked 24th as recently as 2012
  • Ranking increase due to RTW and a commitment to tax relief over the years

Kansas
2017 Rich States, Poor States Economic Outlook Rank: 26

  • Overall improvement of one spot since 2016
  • The state’s recently legislated tax changes increased significantly over the past two years (ranking 7 in 2015 to 46 this year), which has negatively impacted the state’s economic competitiveness
  • The state’s liability system survey ranking also dropped from 5 in 2015 to 19 this year
  • There is a need for Kansas to enact smart budget reform and keep spending at responsible levels
  • Ranked 11th best in 2013 after tax relief and has dramatically dropped since

Kentucky
2017 Rich States, Poor States Economic Outlook Rank: 33

  • Positive: New right to work state
  • Negative: Some of the worst pension liabilities per capita and relatively high tax rates

Maine
2017 Rich States, Poor States Economic Outlook Rank: 42

  • After achieving best overall ranking in Rich States, Poor States of 38th in 2016, Maine fell dramatically to 42nd after income tax increase and minimum wage increase passed on November 2016 ballot 

Maryland
2017 Rich States, Poor States Economic Outlook Rank: 34

  • Fell three spots from 31st in 2016
  • Debt level increased
  • Remaining tax burden increased significantly

Mississippi
2017 Rich States, Poor States Economic Outlook Rank: 22

  • Mississippi passed tax reform during the 2016 legislative session and earned a mention as best of the best in the ALEC Center for State Fiscal Reform study, 2016 State Tax Cut Roundup
  • However, due to large tax cuts from 2016 not making the RSPS time window, the state’s ranking fell
  • Likely a big improvement coming in the 11th edition

Minnesota
2017 Rich States, Poor States Economic Outlook Rank: 45

  • Minnesota’s death tax and high income taxes (both corporate and personal) have negatively impacted the state’s economic competitiveness
  • Not right to work
  • State death tax

Nevada
2017 Rich States, Poor States Economic Outlook Rank: 13

  • Nevada’s destructive tax on business, known as the margins tax, has negatively impacted the state’s overall economic competitiveness 
  • Positive: One of the nine no income tax states 

New Hampshire
2017 Rich States, Poor States Economic Outlook Rank: 17

  • Best all time ranking in RSPS (gained 6 spots since 2016)
  • New Hampshire has the best economic outlook ranking in the New England region
  • Passed substantial tax relief in the 2015 and 2016 legislative sessions
  • New Hampshire is only one of nine states in the nation without a personal income tax.

New Jersey
2017 Rich States, Poor States Economic Outlook Rank: 48

  • New Jersey’s high unfunded pension liabilities and high tax rates negatively impacts the state’s economic competitiveness
  • Tied for worst all time ranking
  • Significant outmigration – more than 525,000 over the past decade

New York
2017 Rich States, Poor States Economic Outlook Rank: 50

  • New York’s high taxes, high rates of spending and government cronyism (START-UP NY) have caused the state to rank dead last in nearly every single edition of Rich States, Poor States
  • Highest state/local business income tax rate in America – 17.19 percent
  • Second highest state/local personal income tax rates
  • Nearly 1.4 million taxpayers have fled the Empire state in the past decade (worst nationally) 
  • However, made significant tax cuts in 2016 and qualified for ALEC State Tax Cut Roundup – future improvement possible

North Carolina
2017 Rich States, Poor States Economic Outlook Rank: 3

  • North Carolina passed historic tax reform in 2013
  • Passed substantial tax relief three out of the past four years
  • Second straight finish in the top five
  • Ranked as poorly as 26th in 2011
  • Budget surplus, AAA bond rating, significant in-migration 

North Dakota
2017 Rich States, Poor States Economic Outlook Rank: 4

  • North Dakota passed significant tax relief in past two years – best ranking in recently legislated tax changes variable
  • 5th straight year in the top 5

Ohio
2017 Rich States, Poor States Economic Outlook Rank: 19

  • From ranking 47 in 2008 to ranking 19 in 2017, Ohio’s economic outlook has improved by almost 30 spots since the first edition of the study
  • Significant tax cuts in past years 

Oklahoma
2017 Rich States, Poor States Economic Outlook Rank: 16

  • After Oklahoma’s first time in the top 10 in 2016, the state fell back in 2017
  • This decline in economic outlook was one of the worst in the nation 
  • After cutting taxes for years, Oklahoma backpedaled and increased taxes in the past year

Rhode Island
2017 Rich States, Poor States Economic Outlook Rank: 36

  • High tax rates, non-right to work, state death tax
  • However, Rhode Island passed significant tax relief in the 2014 and 2015 legislative sessions and earned a mention in ALEC’s 2014, 2015 and 2016 State Tax Cut Roundup editions

 South Carolina
2017 Rich States, Poor States Economic Outlook Rank: 27

  • Improvements in the sales tax burden, as well as recently-legislated tax cuts, helped boost the state’s rank, from 30th in 9th edition
  • A lower amount of debt also helped the state jump
  • Best ranking since 2012

South Dakota
2017 Rich States, Poor States Economic Outlook Rank: 13

  • Positive: South Dakota is only one of nine states in the nation without a personal income tax.
  • However, 2017 is SD’s worst all time ranking in RSPS. Due to substantial sales tax increase and minimum wage increase

Tennessee
2017 Rich States, Poor States Economic Outlook Rank: 5

  • Tennessee is one of nine states in the nation without a personal income tax
  • Tennessee’s best overall ranking in Rich States, Poor States since 1st edition in 2008 (due to recent elimination of Hall Income Tax and death tax
  • Ranked 19th as recently as 2014

Texas:
2017 Rich States, Poor States Economic Outlook Rank: 9

  • Texas is one of nine states in the nation without a personal income tax. 
  • First time in top 10 since 2009
  • Texas passed tax reform during the 2015 legislative session and earned a mention in the ALEC Center for State Fiscal Reform study, 2015 State Tax Cut Roundup
  • Lower state/local debt than in past years
  • Projected to gain 3-4 more Congressional seats in 2020

Utah
2017 Rich States, Poor States Economic Outlook Rank: 1

  • Utah has consistently ranked number one in economic outlook in all editions of Rich States, Poor States
  • Flat tax and pension reform are big reasons why

Vermont
2017 Rich States, Poor States Economic Outlook Rank: 49

  • Perennial bottom 10 ranking  
  • Vermont has some of the highest personal and corporate income tax rates
  • Recent tax increases
  • One of the highest remaining tax burdens 

Washington
2017 Rich States, Poor States Economic Outlook Rank: 40th

  • Fell four spots since 9th edition
  • Worst all time ranking
  • Avoidance of personal income tax the only thing keeping Washington out of bottom tier with NY, CA and NJ

West Virginia 
2017 Rich States, Poor States Economic Outlook Rank: 31

  • One of the big winners in 2017 – improved from 37th to 31st
  • Right to work is the big reason
  • Significant budget difficulties remain 

Wisconsin
2017 Rich States, Poor States Economic Outlook Rank: 14

  • This is Wisconsin’s third best economic outlook ranking Rich States, Poor States
  • Fell from 9th best in 9th edition
  • Fell behind as other states made progress this year
  • Workers’ comp costs increased 

Wyoming
2017 Rich States, Poor States Economic Outlook Rank: 7

  • Wyoming is only one of 9 states in the nation that does not collect a tax on personal income
  • Navigated severe budget problems due to natural resource prices – avoided major tax increases
  • Top 10 for all 10 editions of RSPS

..  ..  ..  
Tuesday  18 April 2017 / Hour 1, Block D:  Larry Kudlow, in re: FT article by Steve Mnuchin:  difference between 1.8%and 3% growth can solve everybody’s problems — staggering when compounded; abt $4.5 trillion of extra revenue. ”Pay for”:  if you make big changes in spending or taxing, try to balance the books.  …   All you need is faster growth from better policies. Steve Mnuchin was the team leader in assembling our Trump tax reform development.  . . ,Wage-earning middle class. Kevin Hassert, Council of Ec Advisors chairman imminently.  Natl Ec Council (Gary Cohn) and CEO may have a tiff. 
 
Hour Two
Tuesday  18 April 2017 / Hour 2, Block A:  Stephen F. Cohen, NYU & Princeton professor Emeritus; American Committee for East-West Accord; author: Soviet Fates and Lost Alternatives: From Stalinism to the New Cold War, & The Victims Return: Survivors of the Gulag after Stalin; in re:  Tales of the New Cold War: False narratives & the Kremlin.
“…Washington (CNN) —The FBI last year used a dossier of allegations of Russian ties to Donald Trump's campaign as part of the justification to win approval to secretly monitor a Trump associate, according to US officials briefed on the investigation.
The dossier has also been cited by FBI Director James Comey in some of his briefings to members of Congress in recent weeks, as one of the sources of information the bureau has used to bolster its investigation, according to US officials briefed on the probe.
This includes approval from the secret court that oversees the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) to monitor the communications of Carter Page, two of the officials said. Last year, Page was identified by the Trump campaign as an adviser on national security.
Officials familiar with the process say even if the application to monitor Page included information from the dossier, it would only be after the FBI had corroborated the information through its own investigation. The officials would not say what or how much was corroborated.
The dossier first came to light when CNN reported that a summary of it had been presented to President Obama and President-elect Trump back in December by top US Intelligence officials.
. . . ”    http://www.cnn.com/2017/04/18/politics/fbi-dossier-carter-page-donald-trump-russia-investigation/  (1 of 4)
Tuesday  18 April 2017 / Hour 2, Block B: Stephen F. Cohen, NYU & Princeton professor Emeritus; American Committee for East-West Accord; in re:  
 (2 of 4)
Tuesday  18 April 2017 / Hour 2, Block C: Stephen F. Cohen, NYU & Princeton professor Emeritus; American Committee for East-West Accord (3 of 4)
Tuesday  18 April 2017 / Hour 2, Block D: Stephen F. Cohen, NYU & Princeton professor Emeritus; American Committee for East-West Accord (4 of 4)
 
Hour Three
Tuesday  18 April 2017/ Hour 3, Block A:   Mark Hemingway, Weekly Standard, in re: 
http://www.weeklystandard.com/cnns-story-contradicting-devin-nunes-on-susan-rice-is-based-entirely-on-anonymous-sources/article/2007637
Tuesday  18 April 2017/ Hour 3, Block B:  Tom Fitton, Judicial Watch, in re:  http://www.judicialwatch.org/press-room/press-releases/judicial-watch-calls-upon-office-congressional-ethics-investigate-whether-rep-schiff-rep-speier-disclosed-classified-information/
 
Tuesday  18 April 2017/ Hour 3, Block C:   Their Last Full Measure: The Final Days of the Civil War, by Joseph Wheelan
Tuesday  18 April 2017/ Hour 3, Block D:  Their Last Full Measure: The Final Days of the Civil War, by Joseph Wheelan
 
 
Hour Four
Tuesday  18 April 2017/ Hour 4, Block A:  Gregory Copley, StrategicStudies director; GIS/Defense & Foreign Affairs; & author, UnCivilization, in re:   Turkey’s Referendum is Transformative for Eurasia, Middle East   Analysis. By GIS/Defense & Foreign Affairs Staff. Turkey’s April 16, 2017, manipulated referendum granting dictatorial powers to the President may be the most significant and transformative change in Eurasia, the Middle East, and parts of Africa since the collapse of the USSR in 1990-91, despite the fact that Turkey’s economy is itself in decline and its population divided to the point of civil war.     
The transformation of Turkey from a parliamentary system, with the Government functioning under a Prime Minister, to an executive presidency has ended the Westernized democracy envisaged by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, introduced by the Grand National Assembly on March 3, 1924.
[See: “Turkey’s President Plans to Unleash New Flow of Illegals into Europe” in Defense & Foreign Affairs Strategic Policy, 3-2017, and Defense & Foreign Affairs Special Analysis of March 30, 2017,for a details of the changes.]  
Pres. Reçep Tayyip Erdoğan has now embarked on a revival of Ottomanism and a Turk-centric caliphate which is being cloaked, to a degree, by modern trappings. Assessments by the International Strategic Studies Association, publisher of GIS and Defense & Foreign Affairs Special Analysis, indicate that the process by which Pres. Erdoğan reached this point was carefully scripted, including the manipulated “false coup” of July 15-16, 2016, which gave the impetus for him to purge the system and society of many of his opponents. The growing politicization of all legal and security elements in Turkey enabled him then to strongly structure the way in which the April 16, 2017, referendum would take place.  
What is significant is that, even with all of the fraud (much of which was documented as it occurred by international observers) which accompanied the referendum, Mr Erdoğan was only able to scrape through his “victory”. That victory, however, has polarized Turkish society, and may presage a decade or more of internal conflict, or, indeed, some genuine attempts at a new military coup if sufficient cohesion remains in the Turkish Armed Forces.  (1 of 2)
Tuesday  18 April 2017/ Hour 4, Block B:  Gregory Copley, StrategicStudies director; GIS/Defense & Foreign Affairs; & author, UnCivilization, in re:   Turkey’s Referendum is Transformative for Eurasia, Middle East   (2 of 2)
Tuesday  18 April 2017/ Hour 4, Block C:  Claudia Rosett, TheHill opinion contributor (and multiple other publications) in re:  Trump juggles the foreign policy balls Obama dropped  The Trump administration is taking heat for striking a Syrian air base with Tomahawk missiles and hitting ISIS terrorists in Afghanistan with a MOAB, a conventional bomb so big that it has been dubbed the “Mother of All Bombs.” No doubt there are useful debates to be had about the pros and cons, both tactical and juridical. But one sure upside of these strikes is that they are a step toward restoring abroad the credibility of America as a power to be reckoned with.
Tuesday  18 April 2017/ Hour 4, Block D: Jed Babbin, American Spectator, in re:  None of our armed forces - USAF, USN, Marines - has enough combat-capable aircraft to meet the challenge of any sustained war. The president needs to treat this as a real emergency.  U.S. airpower not at crisis readiness level - Washington Times