Tuesday 24 November 2015
Map, left: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said the downing of the Russian jet was "fully in lines with Turkey's rules of engagement." He separately also emphasized that Turkey exercised a right to defend "our brothers and sisters — Turkmen," a gesture to a Sunni Muslim minority group living in the borderlands between Syria and Turkey and numbering around 200,000 people, or about 1 percent of Syria's population. (Syrian Turkmen leaders, though, insist that the community's population is far larger — perhaps as much as 3.5 million — with many members having been "Arabized" over the past century.) . . . On Tuesday, the Turkmen rebels placed themselves in the center of the conflict after claiming to have fatally shot Russian airmen parachuting to earth from their struck aircraft. "Both of the pilots were retrieved dead. Our comrades opened fire into the air and they died in the air," Alpaslan Celik, a deputy commander in a Syrian Turkmen brigade, told Reuters. He was apparently clutching what he claimed was a piece of the airman's parachute.
Russian officials later confirmed that at least one of the pilots was killed by ground fire.
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
Co-host: Larry Kudlow, CNBC senior advisor; & Cumulus Media radio
Hour One
Tuesday 24 November 2015 / Hour 1, Block A: Steve Moore, Heritage; in re: Anti-Assad forces in Syria said by RT to have shot at the two Russian pilots who'd bailed out of the Sukhoi(s?) that the Turks are said to have shot down moments before. And Bernie Sanders claims that the US is already well on the road toward being a democratic Socialist nation. LK: Growth solves poverty. Hillary is endangering her candidacy by following Sanders. SM: We have two Sanderses in the race: Bernie Sanders and Hillary Sanders. The size of the govt actually fell during Bill Clinton's presidency. Socialism failed in Greece, Puerto Rico. Argentina, France, Connecticut. American libDems have Euro-envy. GOP shd have "Destroy ISIS " as its rallying cry. Reagan Democrats today are often Trump supporters. We may disagree but we need to be attentive : there are millions of them. JB: Sanders says, "We need socialism for workers, not just for Wall Street. . . . Economic rights should be an intrinsic part." LK: Chinese are bad actors; we should have the best-quality goods at modest prices around the world. We should slash corporate taxes – not use tariffs or protectionism. If the GOP plays its card right – grow the pie larger, reward success – it has big opportunities [to win]. SM: Dems are trying to portray the GOP as crony capitalists, bad for he middle class, Republicans need to disassociate themselves from these, and should say they're sorry for having engaged in the disastrous bailouts. Also, ISIS gets $2-5 mill/day from oil, we should be bombing their oil and drilling our own.
Sanders touts plan to make ‘ultra-rich pay their fair share’ ; New Hampshire SEIU branch backs Sanders ; White House unveils regulatory agenda / http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2015/11/20/poll-watch-democr...
Tuesday 24 November 2015 / Hour 1, Block B: Steve Moore, Heritage; in re: Reagan: "A govt big eno0ugh to give you everything you want is big en9ugh to take everything you've got." WSJ priced out Bernie Sanders's free-everything plan at $18 trillion. . . . LK: Education choice and health-care choice are essential.
Tuesday 24 November 2015 / Hour 1, Block C: Dr Scott Gottlieb, AEI & Hoover & WSJ; in re: drug pricing. 'When govts are in charge of bread, there'll immed be a shortage, plus very high black-mkt prices." Note that it tales a large sum of capital at risk for a long period to dvp a drug, If govt lowers possible drug price, investors will put their cash in telecoms, or media, or biotech, for example. Why did the pharmas initially support Obamacare? Price controls – diminishing profits – less investment – end to drug discoveries. Presto, end of that medical research. . . Independent Ad (IPAB) – apptd academicians to create new Medicare rules; powers triggered when Medicare budget grows faster than inflation rate = 2017. It can create any new statutory authority without Congressional authority, and no judicial review, no appeal of decision. Any new president arriving at WH will love this power. Can nationalize research, rewrite all Medicare rules, without any act of Congress; can rule any specific drug to be out of bounds. Can also run operations and practices. Also control coverage and payments!
Tuesday 24 November 2015 / Hour 1, Block D: Kori Schake, Hoover; in re: NATO stands with Turkey, but tries to calm down the event – Jens Stoltenberg did a terrific job, Also pointed out that not only had Turkey released radar showing flight path into Turkish air space, bit other nations had done the same. LK: Where's the Article V declaring vs ISIS?? KS: Only one such declaration done in history. Wd like NATO to invoke Article V. F-16 . . . KS: Yes, we shd declare that a swath of sky cannot by [impinged into] and US president declines, I do like your emphasis that he Russian military isn't that good. LK: One US aircraft carrier has three times the bombers that all of Russia has in Syria. KS: Pres Obama's strategy is to do the absolute minimum possible and pass the problems on to his successor. . . . In NATO, the country that feels threatened ask s NATO for Article V; only exception was 9/11, when the Brits asked, arrayed intl institutions f/b/o the US. I guess what we'll do is beg Turkey not to ask for anything that NATO wont give them. A no-fly zone is a very good idea but doubt this president will do that. LK: Were there a grand coalition to destroy ISIS, we would not include ISIS? KS: True – identify political end-states that everyone can work toward. Need to run a coalition according to an identified end-state.
Hour Two
Tuesday 24 November 2015 / Hour 2, Block A: Stephen F. Cohen is Prof. Emeritus of Russian Studies/History/Politics at NYU and Princeton. He's also a member of the Board of the recently-formed American Committee for East-West Accord (eastwestaccord.com); in re: . . . we're told repeatedly that the Russian Sukoi-24 passed into Turkish air space – turns out probably to have been 17 seconds – when Turkey began to shoot. The attack followed weeks of Turkey protesting that Russia was bombing Turkmen on Mt Turkmen in Syria. Now 35 villages are in the hands of regime forces where elements of Nusrah are working with Turkmen. . . . On Oct 31, Russian passenger airliner out of Sinai was blown out of the air; hundreds of deaths from terrorism, incl Paris,. This has changed thinking in Europe. Francois Hollande, not hitherto known to be DeGaulle-like, declared a Grand Coalition against ISIS. He turned not to NATO but to the WEU mutual defense clause: I invoke this. Unanimous vote in favor. Hollande had allied France and the EU with Russia against ISIS. Washington began to criticize Putin. Hollande has taken over leadership of the EU, trying to form a [huge] coalition. Obama refused. Why? Right-Sector [probably] Ukrainian nationalists blew out the Crimean electrical system, incl hospitals. When repair teams arrived at the sabotaged grids, they were opposed by Ukrainian commandos. Then 36 hours later the shoot-down of Russian fighter plane over Turkey, plane lands in Syria. On the main Russian evening news, videos of people on the ground murdering at least one Russian pilot who'd safely ejected, and then murdering the helo pilot who'd come to rescue.
Tuesday 24 November 2015 / Hour 2, Block B: Stephen F. Cohen is Prof. Emeritus of Russian Studies/History/Politics at NYU and Princeton; in re; Russia will cut off gas supplies to Ukraine in response to Ukrainian sabotage of all electrical supply to Crimea. . . . Most people who espouse conspiracy theories cannot explain history and political interactions. If a rapprochement begins between Europe and Russia because of Paris, I wouldn't be surprised if odd things began to happen to delay that. My view is that the sabotage of electricity to Crimea is one such, Also, suddenly Kiev said it'd stop all freight deliveries to Russia. Note that there's a nuclear reactor in Crimea; cutting electricity is highly dangerous. [London is now reporting that the shoot-down took place over Syrian air space. Just happened to be a Turkish film crew to record it, which is where we got the pictures.]
Tuesday 24 November 2015 / Hour 2, Block C: Stephen F. Cohen is Prof. Emeritus of Russian Studies/History/Politics at NYU and Princeton; in re; Jens Stoltenburg: "As we've repeatedly made clear, we stand with our NATO ally Turkey; look forward to diplomacy and de-escalation. " It's NATO that aggressively threatens Russia, knows that it commits multiple provocations. It's NATO that's creating provocations– expansion begun 20 years ago by Clinton, with the Baltics, Poland, Rumania - looks through Moscow's eyes. Russia's defense perimeter was considered to be the Warsaw Pact countries. Now much of the pact is in NATO Not surprising that this alarms the daylights out of Moscow. Creeping approach of NATO toward Georgia that led to the Russia-US proxy war in Georgia, and now to the proxy war we have in Ukraine. US Policy is to bring Georgia into NATA; vetoes d by Franc and Germans , who say the implications. In 1990 we violated our promise (by Jim Baker) to the Russians that in exchange for letting Germany reunite, we wouldn't expand one inch to the east. The single evilest threat in the world today is terrorism. No longer only non-state actors – e. g., ISIS. The only way to contain this is a coalition with Russia, which has resources we lack, from information to special training. Paris needed Moscow's agreement to send the DeGaulle to the Eastern Med. Royal Navy said, US too. this coalition is not NATO; four great powers operating together. Today Obama said, "We are allied with France, not Russia." Reckless! The back story is: Obama demands htat Assad must go now before we can have an alliance with Russia, IF the US did that, there'd be another Libya in Damascus. Putin, Hollande, and all of Europe know this. Russia destroyed more of ISIS in days than the US did in 14 months of not aiming at ISIS but bombing Assad's forces on behalf of "moderate" Syrians – anti-Assad/pro-al Qaeda groups. [Not surprisingly, this annoyed Russia. –ed.]
Tuesday 24 November 2015 / Hour 2, Block D: Stephen F. Cohen is Prof. Emeritus of Russian Studies/History/Politics at NYU and Princeton; in re; American triumphalism creates the problem that leads to alienation between Moscow and Washington, and has since the end of the Soviet Union. "We're number one!" - egad.
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Russia: Officials Threaten to Cut Energy Supplies to Ukraine over Crimea Blackout
Situation Reports NOVEMBER 24, 2015 | 21:33 GMT ! Print − Text Size +
1. Russia will cut off natural gas supplies to Ukraine in response to a dispute over a power blackout in Crimea and is threatening to halt coal deliveries, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said Nov. 24, Reuters reported. Unknown saboteurs blew up power lines to Russia-annexed Crimea on Nov. 22, leaving the peninsula to rely on emergency generators to meet its basic power needs. The row could exacerbate tensions between Ukraine and pro-Russia fighters in the east, where a recent spike in cease-fire violations is threatening to shatter a tenuous truce. Faced with a food import ban by Moscow for supporting sanctions against Russia, Ukraine said it would hit back with reciprocal trade bans and may also block goods shipments to Crimea.
2. The downing of the Russian warplane does not constitute a threat to energy ties between Russia and Turkey, Turkish Energy Minister Berat Albayrak said Nov. 24, BBC reported. Turkey is the second biggest purchaser of Russian natural gas products, according to statistics by Russian energy giant Gazprom, and both countries are taking part in the construction of the influential TurkStream pipeline.
RUSSIA AND TURKEY
Russia and Turkey have long been at odds over Syria, with Moscow backing President Bashar al Assad and Ankara supporting the opposition to overthrow him. Tensions increased dramatically with the start of the Russian air campaign on September 30. The Turkish shoot-down of a Russian combat aircraft on November 24 is an escalation in this tense stand-off between Russia and a NATO member. Although both sides may refrain from additional aggressive activities at once, tensions between Russia and Turkey have been continuously growing and are likely to expand, further testing the strength of the US commitment to its NATO partner. These tensions will also severely hinder efforts to build a "grand coalition" including Turkey and Russia.
Turkey's decision to fire on a Russian Su-24 that briefly violated its airspace resulted from more than concerns about the integrity of its borders. Russian airstrikes have been helping Assad, Hezbollah, and Iranian proxy forces advance in Turkmen areas near the Turkish border in recent days. Turkey claims that those airstrikes hit Turkmen villages. Turkey regards the Turkmen of Iraq and Syria as kin, works to protect and advance their interests, and tries to defend them. The Turkish shoot-down is probably intended to deter Putin from continuing to provide air support to Assad operations against them, among other things
The incident highlights the grand strategic implications of American policy in Syria, moreover. The West, led by France, has been drifting in the direction of cooperating if not allying with Putin, whom many wrongly believe is in Syria to fight ISIS. That drift empowers Putin and overlooks the larger objectives of Putin's maneuvers, as Leon Aron points out. Putin aims to disrupt NATO fundamentally as part of a larger effort to recoup Russia's losses following the collapse of the Soviet Union. He has been deliberately and aggressively prodding Turkey from his airbase in Syria, just as he has been consistently violating the airspace of US allies in the Baltics and US partners in Scandinavia. He is counting on Washington to remain so myopically focused on the fight against ISIS that it overlooks and tacitly accepts these assaults on the Western alliance structure. It would be an enormous mistake if we did so.
This timeline is a joint presentation by the Institute for the Study of War (www.understandingwar.org) and the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute (www.criticalthreats.org). The text is drawn from daily media tracking and analysis conducted by the superb analytical teams at ISW and CTP. The Syria Team at ISW includes Jennifer Cafarella, Christopher Kozak, and Genevieve Casagrande. The Ukraine/Russia Team is headed by Hugo Spaulding. This presentation was created by Frederick W. Kagan, director of the Critical Threats Project (fkagan@aei.org). ISW analysts can be reached at press@understandingwar.org.
US BAGHDAD
A spokesman for the U.S.-led coalition based out of Baghdad said the U.S. indeed heard Turkey on "open channels" issue 10 warnings to the Russian jet before the incident. Reports out of Russia also say a military helicopter was shot at in Syria, killing one serviceman. The helicopter was reportedly on a rescue mission.
Rebels said they fired at the two parachuting pilots as they descended, and that one had died. A rebel spokesman said they would consider releasing the body in exchange for prisoners held by Syria. The fate of the second pilot was not immediately known.
VIDEO: Raw footage of Russian jet being shot down U.S. defense official said that two Turkish F-16s fired heat-seeking air-to-air missiles at the Russian aircraft.
“This will get complicated,” the official said.
Tuesday's incident is the first time since the 1950s that a Russian or Soviet military aircraft has been publicly acknowledged to have been shot down by a NATO country, according to Reuters.
The officials said the jet had ignored ten warnings. However, a furious President Vladimir Putin of Russia denied the plane had been in Turkish air space and made clear he would not let the matter drop, with the risk of an international escalation.
“Today’s loss was a stab in the back by the accomplices of terrorists,” he said. “Our pilots and our aircraft never threatened the territory of Turkey. That much is obvious.” He insisted that the Russian air force had been taking part in operations against Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (Isil). "We will never tolerate such crimes like the one committed today," he said.
Russia's military operations in Syria will continue despite the downing of a Russian fighter plane by Turkey, according to a Kremlin spokesman, Reuters reported Nov. 24. Russian mission creep may be setting in as Moscow becomes increasingly invested in and committed to sustaining Syrian government forces in the conflict.
Ukraine Is Not a Bargaining Chip for Putin's Support against ISIS By Ihor Kozak
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/24/us-mideast-crisis-syria-turkey... ; https://twitter.com/2kdei/status/669231705018920964
RUSSIA
Putin livid at Turkey ANKARA/MOSCOW - Turkey shot down a Russian warplane near the Syrian border, in one of the most serious clashes between a NATO member country and Russia for half a century. Russia's Lavrov cancels Turkey trip after jet downing ; Putin's 'realpolitik' aims to make Russia indispensable /Read more at Reuters http://www.reuters.com/#hDrDpDGPx4Uj7YW4.99
In a letter to the U.N. Security Council, Turkey said it had shot down the jet while in Turkish air space. Along with a second plane, the aircraft had flown more than a mile into Turkey for 17 seconds, despite being warned 10 times in five minutes while approaching to change direction, the letter said. "Nobody should doubt that we made our best efforts to avoid this latest incident. But everyone should respect the right of Turkey to defend its borders," Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said in a speech in Ankara.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/24/us-mideast-crisis-syria-turkey-nato-idUSKBN0TD2C620151124#PEDRcKukIP611KcE.97
NATO ambassadors called on Ankara to show "cool-headedness" on Tuesday following an emergency meeting in Brussels, after Turkey shot down a Russian warplane near the Syrian border, diplomats said. Diplomats present at the meeting told Reuters that while none of the 28 NATO envoys defended Russia's actions, many expressed concern that Turkey did not escort the Russian warplane out of its airspace. "There are other ways of dealing with these kinds of incidents," said one diplomat who declined to be named. / Read more at Reuters http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/24/us-mideast-crisis-syria-turkey...
NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg said on Tuesday night that the military alliance stands by key ally Turkey, but urged both sides to try to calm the crisis.
LIVE BLOG: Turkey downs Russian jet near Syria border
"As we have repeatedly made clear, we stand in solidarity with Turkey and support the territorial integrity of our NATO ally, Turkey," Stoltenberg said after an emergency meeting of all 28 members requested by Ankara.
"I look forward to further contacts between Ankara and Moscow and call for calm and de-escalation. Diplomacy and de-escalation are important to resolve this situation," he said.
Turkish officials told Al Jazeera the Russian plane was shot down by the Turkish military according to the rules of engagement, but Putin said the jet posed no threat.
Hour Three
Tuesday 24 November 2015 / Hour 3, Block A: Dr Lara M Brown, George Washington University, and Salena Zito, Pittsburgh Tribune-Review; in re: Hillary Clinton released details on Sunday for a new tax cut to help people care for their aging relatives—a problem, she said, which will only grow as the baby boomer population ages.
The new Clinton proposal, presented during a town hall in Iowa on Sunday, includes a tax credit to offset up to $6,000 in home caregiving expenses and an expansion of Social Security benefits to those who take time off to care for a family member. Clinton will also invest $100 million in a grant program that gives caregivers relief from their duties by giving their ailing relative temporary care in a facility outside their home—a program she championed during her tenure in the Senate. http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/11/22/clinton-unveils-elderly-care-plan.html
Tuesday 24 November 2015 / Hour 3, Block B: Dr Lara M Brown, George Washington University, and Salena Zito, Pittsburgh Tribune-Review; in re: In Renovation of Golf Club, Donald Trump Also Dressed Up History Donald J. Trump at the opening of his golf course in Sterling, Va., earlier this year. Historians say a plaque that Mr. Trump installed commemorating a Civil War site on the property is not accurate. Historians say a plaque installed by Mr. Trump at a golf course on the Potomac River commemorates a Civil War event that never happened. Mr. Trump’s avoidance of specifics is seen by some admirers as a refreshing contrast.
Donald Trump’s Shortcuts and Salesmanlike Stretches Mr. Trump’s refusal to be pinned down on the details of his positions has repeatedly led to a guessing game as to what he means.
Chris Christie’s Bid Gains New Life as He Invokes 9/11 Amid Fear The Paris attacks have brought a sudden intensity, attention and focus to the once-moribund candidacy of Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey.
FIRST DRAFT Ben Carson’s Book Tour Draws Campaign Finance Complaint The American Democracy Legal Fund says Mr. Carson violated campaign financing laws on a 26-day book tour in Iowa last month because his publisher, Sentinel, paid his travel expenses.
FIRST DRAFT Donald Trump’s Affinity for Ted Cruz May Soon Be Changing A new poll shows Ted Cruz in a statistical tie with Donald J. Trump for the lead in Iowa, raising the prospect that the billionaire developer may soon have to redirect criticism of his top Republican rivals the Texas senator’s way.
FIRST DRAFT Poll Watch: Low Marks for Obama on Fighting Terrorism Less than two weeks after Islamic State terrorists killed scores of people in Paris and Beirut, fewer than one in four Americans say they think President Obama has a clear plan for combating the extremist Muslim group, according to a new CBS News poll.
FIRST DRAFT Ted Cruz Makes a Big Leap in Iowa, Poll Says Senator Ted Cruz’s long-anticipated Iowa surge came a step closer on Tuesday with a new poll showing him just behind Donald J. Trump and leaping ahead of Ben Carson, as terrorism and foreign policy now drive the 2016 nominating race
Tuesday 24 November 2015 / Hour 3, Block C: Robert Zimmerman, behind the black, in re: Blue Origin lands first stage rocket vertically The competition heats up: Yesterday Jeff Bezos’s company Blue Origin did its second test flight of its New Shepard suborbital rocket and capsule, and successfully recovered the rocket’s first stage, landing the stage vertically using its rockets. As Jeff Bezos wrote at the link: Rockets have always been expendable. Not anymore. Now safely tucked away at our launch site in West Texas is the rarest of beasts, a used rocket.
This flight validates our vehicle architecture and design. Our unique ring fin shifted the center of pressure aft to help control reentry and descent; eight large drag brakes deployed and reduced the vehicle’s terminal speed to 387 mph; hydraulically actuated fins steered the vehicle through 119-mph high-altitude crosswinds to a location precisely aligned with and 5,000 feet above the landing pad; then the highly-throttleable BE-3 engine re-ignited to slow the booster as the landing gear deployed and the vehicle descended the last 100 feet at 4.4 mph to touchdown on the pad.
When you watch the video you’ll see that we took the liberty of engineering all the drama out of the landing.
Tuesday 24 November 2015 / Hour 3, Block D: Lou Ann Hammond, Driving the Nation, in re: Volkswagen Submits Proposal for Diesel-Emissions Fix Amid Calls ... The EPA and CARB confirmed that the proposal is under review but did not provide details. The agencies will work together with Volkswagen to ... ; VW submits vehicle recall plan to CARB and federal counterparts OracleHerald.com (blog) ; VW lays out step one in a plan to fix diesel mess Autoblog (blog) ; Volkswagen Submits Recall Plan to California Air Regulators In-Depth-Bloomberg ; Volkswagen cuts 2016 capital spending plan Opinion-The Express Tribune ; VW cuts 2016 capital spending plan as cheating scandal widens In-Depth-Reuters
Hour Four
Tuesday 24 November 2015 / Hour 4, Block A: The Marquis: Lafayette Reconsidered, by Laura Auricchio ; Part II of III (segment 1 of 4)
Tuesday 24 November 2015 / Hour 4, Block B: The Marquis: Lafayette Reconsidered, by Laura Auricchio ; Part II of III (segment 2 of 4)
Tuesday 24 November 2015 / Hour 4, Block C: The Marquis: Lafayette Reconsidered, by Laura Auricchio ; Part II of III (segment 3 of 4)
Tuesday 24 November 2015 / Hour 4, Block D: The Marquis: Lafayette Reconsidered, by Laura Auricchio ; Part II of III (segment 4 of 4)
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